Economic Uncertainty Affects Ultra-Low-Cost Airlines
Frontier Airlines said Thursday that it expects to reduce capacity in the second quarter in response to economic uncertainty in the “current environment,” a warning that comes amid a volatile week in financial markets sparked by shifting policies by the Trump administration. This move highlights the challenges faced by ultra-low-cost carriers like Frontier in a period of economic uncertainty.
- Frontier expects revenue growth to be lower-than-expected as a result of weakened demand in March.
- The airline is anticipating a net loss for the first quarter and cannot release a 2025 outlook due to uncertainty.
- Capacity cuts will primarily affect off-peak days, but Frontier will closely monitor the demand environment and make adjustments as needed.
Risk of Recession for the Airlines
The carrier’s outlook offers a glimpse into how the economic uncertainty is affecting ultra-low-cost airlines. While President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he would pause his administration’s sweeping tariffs for 90 days, some tariffs remain, including hefty ones on Chinese goods.
“While we do expect some consumers to trade down, we believe there is greater likelihood that consumers trade down within the same carrier’s cabin (e.g., moving from Premium Economy to Standard Economy) than they pivot to a legacy airline like Delta,” said TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald.
Legacy Airlines Faring Better
Wall Street analysts have said legacy airlines are more likely to fare better in a recession because of their diversified products.
| Product Diversification | Diversity of Routes and Markets | Passenger Traffic |
|---|---|---|
| Legacy Airlines | Global routes and markets | Passenger traffic |
| Ultra-Low-Cost Airlines | Domestic routes and markets | Specific routes and markets |
Reaction from Other Airlines
Delta Air Lines, which reported first quarter earnings on Wednesday, offered similar guidance.
“It’s hard to know how this is going to play out, given that this is somewhat self-imposed,” said Delta CEO Ed Bastian during a call with analysts on Wednesday. “And I’m hopeful that sanity will prevail and we’ll move through this period of time on the global trade front relatively quickly.”
Travel Sector Performance
The performance of airline sector stocks within the ST200, a composite index of the global travel industry, is worth monitoring. The Skift Travel 200 combines the financial performance of nearly 200 travel companies worth more than a trillion dollars.
ST200 Index Composition
- Network carriers
- Low-cost carriers
- Other related companies
Opportunities for Travel Brands
In the face of economic uncertainty, travel brands can capitalize on the increased spending on experiences and the digital habits of younger audiences. Leveraging TikTok, for example, presents a unique opportunity for travel brands to connect with eager travelers.
TikTok for Travel Brands
Driven by increased spending on experiences and the digital habits of younger audiences, TikTok has emerged as a key platform for inspiring and shaping travel decisions. By leveraging the platform’s reach early in the year, travel brands can tap into the growing demand for travel inspiration and planning.
Future of Flying
The shape of seating for 2030 is set, but what airlines, designers, and seatmakers do within those shapes will make or break their market position.
Seating for 2030
The design of seats, styles, and features will be shaped by changing consumer preferences, technological advancements, and sustainability considerations.
Deportation Flights and Travel Insurance
Avelo Airlines, a budget carrier, has sparked controversy by announcing it would carry out deportation flights for ICE. This decision is unusual and risky for a commercial carrier.
ICE Deportation Flights
Avelo’s decision to carry out deportation flights for ICE is unusual and risky for a commercial carrier. Typically, these flights are operated by charter airlines, most of which are not known to the public.
Business Travel Weakness
Business travel has been going strong, but recent weakness in April suggests it may be affected by the current economic uncertainty.
Business Travel Surge
Business travel surged early in 2022, says data from Navan and Travelperk.
